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Prothonotary warbler (Protonotaria citrea) COSEWIC assessment and status report: chapter 10

Technical Summary

Protonotaria citrea

Prothonotary Warbler – Paruline orangée

Range of Occurrence in Canada:
Ontario

Extent and Area Information

Extent of occurrence (EO) (km²):
ca 15,000 km²

Based on the range envelope of known/probable breeding occurrences provided in Figure 2

Specify trend in EO:
Stable
Are there extreme fluctuations in EO?
No
Area of occupancy (AO) (km²):
0.4 km²

Based on current estimated population of no more than 20 pairs, each occupying territories of 2 ha

Specify trend in AO:
Declining
Are there extreme fluctuations in AO?
No
Number of known or inferred current locations from Figure 2:
10
Specify trend in # (since last COSEWIC assessment):
Stable
Are there extreme fluctuations in number of locations?
No
Specify trend in area, extent or quality of habitat:
Stable or declining depending on location

Population Information

Generation time (average age of parents in the population):
2-4 years
Number of mature individuals 
Based on most recent population surveys conducted in 2005, includes counts of unmated males:
28-34 individuals
Total population trend:
Decline
% decline over the last/next 10 years or 3 generations
Based on estimated minimum population of 40 pairs in 1995
(Page 1996), versus 8 pairs in 2005:
80%
Are there extreme fluctuations in number of mature
individuals?
No
Is the total population severely fragmented?
No
Specify trend in number of populations:
Stable
Are there extreme fluctuations in number of populations?
N/A

Threats (actual or imminent threats to populations or habitats)

Rescue Effect (immigration from an outside source) 

Status of outside population(s)?
USA:
Generally secure across most of its US range, although Breeding Bird Survey results show a long-term continent-wide decline of  –1.3%/year between 1966 and 2005.
Is immigration known or possible?
Yes
Would immigrants be adapted to survive in Canada?
Yes
Is there sufficient habitat for immigrants in Canada?
Yes, but it is highly fragmented
Is rescue from outside
populations likely?
Maybe, but the closest source populations are small, scattered and likely in decline

Quantitative Analysis

PVA model predicts >90% chance of extinction within 100 yrs, when no immigration, and 0% when there is immigration of 1 female per year

Current Status:

COSEWIC:
Endangered (1996,2000,2007);
Ontario:
Endangered

Status and Reasons for Designation

Status:
Endangered
Alpha-numeric code:
A2b, C2a(i), D1

Reasons for Designation:

In Canada, this species breeds only in deciduous swamp forests in southwestern Ontario. It has shown an 80% decrease in abundance over the last 10 years and its current population is between 28 and 34 mature individuals, only. Threats include loss and degradation of breeding habitat, loss of coastal mangrove forests in Central and South America where the species winters, and habitat disturbances that result in increased nest site competition with House Wrens and increased nest parasitism by Brown-headed Cowbirds.

Applicability of Criteria

Criterion A: (Declining Total Population): Endangered A2b; population has declined by 80% over the last three generations

Criterion B: (Small Distribution and Decline or Fluctuation): Does not meet criterion

Criterion C: (Small Total Population Size and Decline):  Endangered C2a(i); population contains 28-34 mature individuals, the population has been steadily declining over the last 20 years and this may continue as habitat is further degraded and no population contains > 250 mature individuals

Criterion D: (Very Small Population or Restricted Distribution): Endangered D1; population contains 28-34 mature individuals

Criterion E: (Quantitative Analysis): 

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